Tuesday, December 05, 2006

All's Quiet on the Daisuke Front

I haven't posted here in a while. I've been anxiously awaiting any kind of substantative news on the Boras/Epstein negotiations, but it's been very quiet on both sides of the ocean. What we've heard is a lot of speculation, both from optimistic Red Sox fans, and bitter Yankees fans, hoping the whole thing is a bad dream. I was one of those Yankee fans at the beginning, but I really feel comfortable with Matsuzaka in Fenway. It should be an interesting season with him in the AL East.

The only thing I have to offer here at this point, until something happens that's real, rather than imagined, is a bit of perspective on the money we may be looking at. Think about these recent signings and where Matsuzaka sits in context.

1. Roy Oswalt (5 years, $73 million)
2. Chris Carpenter (5 years, $65 million)
3. Vincente Padilla (3 years, $34 million)
4. Gil Meche/Ted Lilly (asking 4 years, $40 million)
5. Adam Eaton (3 years, $24.5 million)

The rumors have been swirling that Boras is seeking 6 years and $12 million per season for Matsuzaka. That would seem to jive with this market. Boras is steadfast in his pitch that Matsuzaka is one of the top pitchers in the world, and should be paid as such. If established aces like Oswalt and Carpenter are getting $13-15 million per year, Matsuzaka should come in just below. Likewise, Vincente Padilla who is essentially an NL pitcher with a career ERA of 4.06, ERA+ of 106, and WHIP at 1.346 is getting $11+ million per. Will Boras allow Vincente Padilla to get more money than Daisuke? Fat chance. It stands to reason as well that he will be paid significantly more than Lilly and Meche, not to mention Adam Eaton. Those guys have no business in the same conversation as Matsuzaka.

What the Red Sox now face is the prospect of paying the posting fee and the contract, plus luxury tax factors, to the tune of 6 years and about $25 million per year. Ouch. I'm of the belief that he's going to earn as much of that money as anyone can be expected to earn, but that's a tough pill to swallow. It makes you wonder if Johan Santana is going to get $30 million a year in 2008, doesn't it. (Don't bother answering that, it's a rhetorical question.)

More when it comes in, Matsuzaka Maniacs.


At 4:40 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Do you have a source on that 6 year deal for $12 million a year? I haven't been able to find much.

At 5:15 AM, Blogger DrAnon said...

Please don't forget that the $51 million posting fee does not count towards the luxury tax. John Henry and the Red Sox company (not the team) will pay the posting fee. Furthermore, as Boras himself has stated, this is probably going to end up a 3 party deal (as much as Bud may not want it to). Daisuke (and Boras), if he signs for a low(er) value contract, will probably be recieving some sort going away present. In actuality the Red Sox as a team will not be paying anywhere close to $25 million a year, and that's without factoring in the large amounts of money that will be coming from overseas markets.

At 10:04 AM, Blogger matcohen said...

This is a tough deal for Boston to get done.

If Mats goes back to Japan, he gives up say $8 million for a year.
Next year, he is a free agent. He can sign a 3 year bullet deal at $15 million with anyone he wants.

The $51 million in value can be given to Mats, not Seibu. The whole posting system makes no sense.

Let's say he signs a 4 year $12 million deal. He gets $48 million over 4 years. Boston pays $99 million over 4 years or $25 million a year over 4 years.

If he goes back, he gets the same $48 million.

So unless Boston is willing to pay him 4/48 or $25mm total, it makes sense for DM to go back to Japan.

But at the end of the day, all of this costs Boston nothing.


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