tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-290501722024-03-14T05:37:44.733+09:00Matsuzaka WatchMike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.comBlogger165125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-172626180190491442007-11-14T02:55:00.001+09:002007-11-14T03:36:33.289+09:00The EndHello again Matsuzaka Watch fans. This will be the final post at Matsuzaka Watch. I am a bit sad to be hanging up the work I've done here. It's been a lot of fun and has helped to bring new perspective on the Japanese game to a broad audience. It has also given me a new perspective and has produced a good deal of thought provoking ideas that need to be explored further.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/RznoiqW_eyI/AAAAAAAAAps/EXgvwYgVCLk/s1600-h/Matsuzaka+Yankees+Mock+Up.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/RznoiqW_eyI/AAAAAAAAAps/EXgvwYgVCLk/s400/Matsuzaka+Yankees+Mock+Up.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5132388932549311266" border="0" /></a>Matsuzaka Watch <a href="http://canyonofheroes.blogspot.com/2006/03/matsuzaka-watch.html" target="_blank">started</a> at my Yankees blog Canyon of Heroes on March 26, 2006 and was dedicated to bringing Yankee fans information about a dynamic pitching force from Japan. Ironically, the first comment attached to the post there comes from someone calling themselves Sawx Rule and reads, <span style="font-weight: bold;">"Hey, I think you made a mistake in your picture. Shouldn't you have Matsuzaka in a Red Sox's uniform?"</span> The post featured a poorly "Photoshopped" likeness of Daisuke in a Yankee uniform (see left).<br /><br /><a href="http://matsuzaka.blogspot.com/2006/06/matsuzaka-watch-episodes-10-13.html" target="_blank">On June 27, 2006</a> I moved the Canyon of Heroes content over to this blog, hoping to work more seriously on this project for a broader audience. That move was one of the best things I've done as a blogger, as my audience surged and my ability to discuss the Japanese sport with a larger number of readers became reality. <a href="http://matsuzaka.blogspot.com/2007/02/conversation-with-will-carroll.html" target="_blank">My interview with BP's Will Carroll</a> helped to introduce me to the Baseball Prospectus family and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/index.php?author=136" target="_blank">a regular column with them</a> took off.<br /><br />The posting process saw traffic at Matsuzaka Watch go through the roof. I recall people contacting me at 2-3am with e-mails about rumor A or rumor B. Yes, there were actually people who couldn't sleep as the days before the announcement approached. During that period, I played around with a few different banners for the winning bid. Check them out below:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/RznpMqW_ezI/AAAAAAAAAp0/4KsxyNGEU9o/s1600-h/Matsuzaka+Watch.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/RznpMqW_ezI/AAAAAAAAAp0/4KsxyNGEU9o/s400/Matsuzaka+Watch.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5132389654103817010" border="0" /></a><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/RznpUKW_e0I/AAAAAAAAAp8/JetWfuemRFQ/s1600-h/Matsuzaka+Watch+Cubs.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/RznpUKW_e0I/AAAAAAAAAp8/JetWfuemRFQ/s400/Matsuzaka+Watch+Cubs.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5132389782952835906" border="0" /></a><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/RznpfKW_e1I/AAAAAAAAAqE/JEW0_e4br7c/s1600-h/Matsuzaka+Watch+Mets.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/RznpfKW_e1I/AAAAAAAAAqE/JEW0_e4br7c/s400/Matsuzaka+Watch+Mets.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5132389971931396946" border="0" /></a><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/Rznp76W_e2I/AAAAAAAAAqM/nF-3GtqOHck/s1600-h/Matsuzaka+Watch+Rangers.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/Rznp76W_e2I/AAAAAAAAAqM/nF-3GtqOHck/s400/Matsuzaka+Watch+Rangers.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5132390465852636002" border="0" /></a><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/RznqQ6W_e3I/AAAAAAAAAqU/z0hI-chUK-8/s1600-h/Matsuzaka+Watch+Red+Sox.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/RznqQ6W_e3I/AAAAAAAAAqU/z0hI-chUK-8/s400/Matsuzaka+Watch+Red+Sox.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5132390826629888882" border="0" /></a>I was prepared for most realistic contingencies here at MW, and when the news hit that the Red Sox had won the negotiating rights for Matsuzaka, I put up the final banner you see in that group. The current banner came soon after he officially signed and we were off to the races. The image of Daisuke in the current banner comes from the Asahi Beer photo shoots he did prior to heading wearing the Red Sox uniform on the field. I'd hoped that Daisuke would be wearing pinstripes, as you well know by now, and mocked up an action photo of him pitching for the Yankees. When the news came down about Boston, I had to change gears and rework my art to reflect the tough reality. See below:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/RznrLKW_e4I/AAAAAAAAAqc/BVrMLTDJXoE/s1600-h/Yankees+delivery.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/RznrLKW_e4I/AAAAAAAAAqc/BVrMLTDJXoE/s400/Yankees+delivery.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5132391827357268866" border="0" /></a>This is a poorly mocked up version of Daisuke as a Yankee, which looks perfectly ridiculous right now. Secret: The uniform I used was from a Carl Pavano photo. That might explain the bad luck the Yanks had in the posting process.<br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/Rznr0aW_e7I/AAAAAAAAAq0/SICRyqnC59A/s1600-h/Matsuzaka+Red+Sox.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/Rznr0aW_e7I/AAAAAAAAAq0/SICRyqnC59A/s400/Matsuzaka+Red+Sox.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5132392536026872754" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Here's the Red Sox version. This uniform was Pedro's. Don't look too closely at the picture or you'll see the extra jersey I had to create on his right hip, shadows and all.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />The season was full of hype, over-hype, excitement, disappointment, promise, and in the end the Red Sox won it all. This story had the complete range of elements to captivate an audience. There was drama (the posting), mythology (the gyroball), rising action (his strong debut and the Ichiro meeting), falling action (the poor close to the season), and a triumphant climax (World Series victory). I have a lot of optimism about Daisuke's 2008. He's the type of pitcher that will make the adjustment, and he proved in Japan that he was able to rise to the level of his competition. It took a number of years with Seibu before the flashes of brilliance translated to full time domination. I expect that you'll see something very special out of this pitcher before his contract is up.<br /><br />As for me, I will continue my work at Baseball Prospectus. I will be continuing my various "Watch" blogs for other Japanese players, and I will be using <a href="www.baseballjapan.blogspot.com">Baseball Japan</a> as my home base for everything related to the sport in Japan. In addition, I have a couple of more ambitious projects in the works that might eventually come to fruition and really provide the English-speaking fan with the resources they crave for following amateur and professional baseball across the ocean. Stay tuned at BP and at Baseball Japan for more, and don't be a stranger. My e-mail is still in the right margin at the top, and I will leave this blog here for posterity. Thank you from the bottom of my heart and see you around.<br /><br />Mike PlughMike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-91459164913393012742007-10-28T12:06:00.000+09:002007-10-28T12:09:40.262+09:00Quick HookI think Daisuke got a little bit of a quick hook by Francona right there. He's been flirting with trouble a bit the last couple innings, but with a 6-0 lead, you have to give the man a chance to work out of it. He wasn't happy to come out of the game. All of Japan is watching and this was his moment to shine. This was the championship game of the WBC all over again for Daisuke and for the entire nation of Japan. For him to come out mid-inning was slightly deflating.<br /><br />5.1 innings pitched looks a lot less impressive than 6 complete. Now Hawpe swings at the first pitch and gives up an earned run to Daisuke. That's horses*&t in baseball parlance. Our man got a seriously raw deal.Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-13266034644551804502007-10-28T10:35:00.001+09:002007-10-28T10:37:29.432+09:00It's All Over But the Funeral...Top of the 3rd inning, bases loaded, Daisuke drives in 2 runs on his first Major League hit. 5-0 Red Sox. You can call the mortician. This series is over. Could the National League be any worse?<br /><br />Congratulations Red Sox Nation! (As I type it is now 6-0.)Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-33532235081645286322007-10-27T04:43:00.000+09:002007-10-27T05:06:12.290+09:00Daisuke's Last StartThis will be the final start for Daisuke Matsuzaka in the 2007 season. I'm confident that the Sox will not need 7 games to win the World Series and take the lead in the race to become the team of this new century. As I see it, the Sox opened the 20th century by winning the series in 1903, 1912, 1915, 1916, and 1918. Yes, it was 86 long and painful years until the team managed to win it again, but it will only be 3 short years between the most recent wins. The Red Sox will be the first team of the 21st century to win multiple World Series titles. There's no reason to believe that the franchise can't make a similar early century run at more championships, proving that this club is the class of the sport.<br /><br />As a Yankee fan, I loathe to see the Red Sox playing in October. It makes my skin crawl. I'm no Rudy Giuliani. I know where my blood allegiances run. I'm also a baseball writer who wears his passion on his sleeve, but also wants to live in reality. The Sox collapsed in 2006 and Yankee fans rejoiced. I was not one of those Yankee fans. It scared me when the team went to Fenway and swept the Sox' season away last year. It was great in the short term, but these are not your father's Red Sox. There is a plan. It doesn't always work the way Theo wants (Drew, Lugo, Crisp), but it works more than it fails. The ownership is committed to spend. They should. With NESN and an entire region of the United States as a captive audience, the Red Sox have all the resources of the Yankees and have learned that using them may shake off the gritty, lovable underdog image that the team mired in for decades but it also makes them a champion. That's much better.<br /><br />The Yankees are a team in turmoil. They'll be good every year because they spend and they've learned to build the farm aggressively. The problem is, this season is a failure on more than a baseball front. Joe Torre was one of the classiest ambassadors that the sport has seen in years. He was loved by almost every player to enter the clubhouse and the opposition as well. Papi even stuck up for Joe after the Yankees were eliminated. You have guys like Randy Levine and the Steinbrenner boys trying to figure out how to build a ballclub, if they even care about that. They strike me as bottom line first type people, where George was always a man committed to spending his money to win it all. The Sox may win multiple titles before we even get back to the Series.<br /><br />That's my Yankee perspective. It's grim. For the rest of you, our there in Red Sox Nation, there is only glory ahead. One of the more disturbing turn of events from my perspective, which should make you smile, is that Matsuzaka and Okajima winning the championship will solidify the Red Sox as Japan's team. It has always been the Yankees since the days of Babe Ruth. Matsui is the darling of Yomiuri Giants fans in their 30's, 40's, 50's, and up. Matsuzaka is the darling of anyone younger and certainly every kid in the country. By winning it all, there will be a death knell for the future of the Yankees in Japan. It's all about Boston and the red, white, and blue.<br /><br />When Matsuzaka came to the Sox, this wasn't how it was scripted. Yes, the World Series was in the picture, but Daisuke was supposed to be a fire-breathing dragon that helped to stand in front of the Red Sox army and lead the charge to the title. As the third starter, limping into the playoffs after a horrid end of the regular season, he's been mediocre at best. The last start against Cleveland was decent, but no one thinks Matsuzaka and 5 innings and celebrates. You want 7 innings and 10 Ks. You want a no doubt, lock down start that shuts the door on the series. I want to think we'll get that tonight, despite my allegiance to the Red Sox ultimate demise. This is the storybook ending that could shine a glimmer of hope for a better 2008 Matsuzaka. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that Daisuke find it tonight. He will rise to the occasion and throw a gem. I have no empirical support for that guess. It's probably overly optimistic, but I don't care at this point. This is likely my last pre-game post and my last Daisuke prediction. I'm going to be a cheerleader and go with the following numbers:<br /><br />7 IP<br />7 hits<br />1 walk<br />1 run<br />9 Ks<br /><br />The Sox will win and finish the series off in 4 or 5 games. I'll be back when they do to put the cherry on top of the Matsuzaka Watch sundae. Thank you for following this interesting story for the last 2 years. It's been a great ride. Go Daisuke.Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-46234647845270898082007-10-22T02:47:00.001+09:002007-10-22T03:34:22.784+09:00It's Winnin' Time, or......it's dyin' time. Game 7. Big time pressure. Season on the line. Ultimately, Matsuzaka's legacy will be ignited by this single moment. If he's bad, and the Red Sox lose, it will take years of outstanding pitching to win back the fans he will lose in this moment. If he pitches great, and the Sox win, he will have found some measure of redemption after a troubled second half. A lot will be forgiven in this moment if he steps up. J.D. Drew had a bit of that redemption with his big grand slam last night. Will Daisuke hit a grand slam of his own, vaulting the Sox to the World Series? Will the Indians get the best of him yet again?<br /><br />Win and I keep writing here. Lose and it will be one, maybe two, more posts before retiring.<br /><br />7 IP<br />5 hits<br />4 walks<br />4 runs<br />6 Ks<br /><br />Is that enough for a win? Ask the Red Sox offense.....Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-40680803180999671372007-10-16T01:07:00.000+09:002007-10-16T01:22:40.595+09:002nd ChancesThe Indian's Game Two victory has put an entirely new spin on the Red Sox position in the 2007 post-season, and a lot of weight has shifted onto the shoulders of Daisuke Matsuzaka. The fact is, had the Sox won Game Two and put themselves up 2-0 in the series, a lot less would be expected of the rookie pitcher tonight. The Tribe managed to gut out a tremendous win and put the specter of a long series into play. I'm still of the opinion that the Red Sox are going to win the World Series this season (and possibly next season as well). As a Yankee fan, I find that revolting, but this team is built exceptionally well. There are few holes in the roster, and what holes exist have hardly reared their heads this year (J.D. Drew).<br /><br />A lot now depends on Matsuzaka. If he coughs up the game and puts the Sox in a 2-1 situation, you'd have to worry that Wakefield, Beckett, and Schilling would have to win two out of three against Byrd, Sabathia, and Carmona in order to send it to Game 7. In my opinion, you have a situation there in which the Indians seem to hold the advantage, if only by the slimmest of margins. It's debatable, but I don't think anyone in Red Sox Nation wants to find out about who's right and wrong. In that scenario, unless Francona were to change and pitch someone on short rest (Beckett), he'd be starting Matsuzaka again in a deciding Game 7. Hmmmm.....<br /><br />All of it is moot if Daisuke wins tonight. How has he fared against Cleveland this year?<br /><br />@ Fenway on May 30th (5.2 IP, 12 hits, no walks, 6 ER, 4 Ks) Grady Sizemore 2-run HR<br />@ Cleveland on July 24th (7 IP, 4 hits, 3 walks, 0 ER, 5 Ks)<br /><br />It's a tale of two starts for Daisuke. One hideous late inning breakdown, punctuated by a Sizemore blast. One lights out, 7 inning, 98 pitch, shutout on the road. It's almost impossible to predict what we'll see from Daisuke tonight, but I'll give it a shot:<br /><br />6 IP<br />8 hits<br />2 walks<br />3 ER<br />6 Ks<br />Garko or Hafner will play big roles in this game....<br /><br />Just an off the cuff, gut prediction. Go get 'em Daisuke.Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-76324174412763636152007-10-06T04:54:00.000+09:002007-10-06T06:04:57.512+09:00The Big MomentThis is why the Red Sox paid $100 million. Daisuke in the playoffs. Frankly, it's the reason the Yankees spent unfortunate wads of money on Roger Clemens too. Of course you need the horses to get there, but the post-season is all about pitching, and not just pitching, dominant pitching. <br /><br />This is a very big spot for Matsuzaka. He was shaky in the playoffs for Seibu over the years, but made his last start in a short series between the Lions and the SoftBank Hawks where he was matched up against Kazumi Saito. He won the game 1-0, and was absolutely unhittable all night long. That's what the Red Sox would like from Daisuke. One of the keys to this particular performance is the ability of Matsuzaka to get the Sox to the 8th inning with the lead. If he can go 7 strong, Boston can go to one of the setup men with the knowledge that Papelbon is available for 6 outs if need be. That's huge. That's the gift that Beckett bestowed upon his mates when he pitched the complete game shutout.<br /><br />For his part, Daisuke will be facing the Angels for the first time. He has had his greatest success against ball clubs in their first hacks against him, so it bodes well. The only drawback is that I think Francona should have saved him for Game 3 in Anaheim. Matsuzaka's road numbers are better than his home19-5 record splits and he won the WBC MVP on the mound in Southern California. It probably makes no difference.<br /><br />One piece of business is a quick peak at my pre-season projection for Matsuzaka, based on past performance and established translation methods. I ran two different sets of numbers in doing my analysis, the 2005 Seibu stats and last season's 2006 numbers. Here are my attempts and the real thing (keep in mind, I always said that the ERA projection was a run too low):<br /><br />2005 projection<br />215 IP<br />185 Hits<br />16 HR<br />63 BB<br />200 K<br />2.74 ERA<br />1.154 WHIP<br />8.37 K/9<br />3.18 K/BB<br /><br />2006 projection<br />17-4<br />187 IP<br />156 Hits<br />21 HR<br />39 BB<br />181 K<br />2.52 ERA<br />1.043 WHIP<br />8.71 K/9<br />4.64 K/BB<br /><br />Actual numbers<br />15-12<br />204.7 IP<br />191 Hits<br />25 HR<br />80 BB<br />201 K<br />4.40 ERA<br />1.324 WHIP<br />8.84 K/9<br />2.51 K/BB<br /><br />In retrospect, it would have been wiser to project Matsuzaka based on his 2003, 2004, and maybe 2005 numbers for this season. By 2005 and 2006 in Japan he had established a rhythm which allowed him to dominate everyone he faced. Prior to 2005, he was still figuring things out, as he was this season in Boston. You can see that the MLB numbers aren't terribly skewed from his 2005, but are quite a distance from the projection based on last season. What the two projections I provided may tell you, is that Matsuzaka has the upside to be what I have given you...again add a run to that ERA. I'm hoping you'll see Daisuke keep it together all season in 2008 and give you at least a 3.70 ERA, if not lower.<br /><br />The game tonight is a tough one. I'm going to continue following my guts with my predictions. To the annoyance of some readers, I make my guesses by guts and a little feel for this player. I don't go through the trouble of real metrics-based crunching. I don't have time for it to be honest. I've been pretty good so far this year and will bring you an added up tally of every prediction to compare to the actual numbers. That will be fun. Here's the prediction:<br /><br />7 IP<br />7 hits<br />2 walks<br />2 ER<br />7 strikeouts<br />115 pitches<br />Victory<br /><br />Go Daisuke.Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-57906097207991757092007-09-29T08:15:00.001+09:002007-09-29T08:18:04.133+09:00#15I'm late on this, but my buddy needs win #15 for a big payday. I've got out the Daisuke pom-poms and I'm going to predict:<br /><br />8 IP<br />7 hits<br />2 walks<br />2 runs<br />10 Ks<br />WIN #15<br /><br /><object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/5oeD4_q0FPM"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/5oeD4_q0FPM" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object><br /><br />Good luck Daisuke!!Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-65490527764889489282007-09-23T12:00:00.000+09:002007-09-23T12:25:39.705+09:00RetirementHard luck for Matsuzaka. I know someone who has some financial incentive in Daisuke getting 15 wins this year, and I'm feeling for him right now. Here's to one last start this regular season, probably against the Twins, and a 15th victory for our man. To my friend out there, you know who you are, I'm pulling for you big time.<br /><br />With likely a single solitary start for Matsuzaka in the regular season and at least one in the postseason, I think it's time to announce the retirement of Matsuzaka Watch. When the Red Sox season comes to its natural conclusion, either in a champagne drenched locker room celebrating another title, or in more humble surroundings after a playoff defeat, I will hang up my Matsuzaka blog for good.<br /><br />I've followed Daisuke on a start-by-start basis for 4 complete seasons now, and since his high school days from the periphery. Starting this blog was a way to reach out to the baseball-loving public and to turn fans of our national pastime on to the Japanese game via its most dynamic talent. Over the last two seasons, I have devotedly written about each Matsuzaka start, both with Seibu and the Red Sox, not to mention the World Baseball Classic. I've covered theoretical projections, analysis of various features of his workload in Japan, and I've argued tooth and nail with many doubters about his viability in the Major Leagues.<br /><br />It has been interesting to me to watch the conversation transform itself from a very small group of interested fans to a swell of mania in the days of the posting process to a season of ups and downs for Matsuzaka as he's navigated the very different game in the Major Leagues. The conversation started with questions about Japan and the Japanese style of play, prospects headed to the Major Leagues, and heated debates with many people who were too narrow-minded to accept the possibility that every Japanese pitcher would not suffer the same fate as Hideki Irabu, Kazuhisa Ishii, and others. My approach has been a combination of my own enthusiastic fan's perspective, rudimentary metrics, first hand knowledge of the Japanese game, and consultation with people a lot smarter than me.<br /><br />Thanks to the excitement generated by this blog I have been able to expand my coverage to include other dynamic players such as Yu Darvish, Yuki Saito, Sho Nakata, Kosuke Fukudome, Koji Uehara, and more. I have joined a team of outstanding baseball minds at Baseball Prospectus to cover Japan and hopefully increase the interest and knowledge of the universality of this game. In a way, I am proud that my efforts have contributed to broadening the understanding of Japan and Japanese culture as a result of our common love for baseball. I will continue to cover the Japanese game for BP as well as the many other blogs that have spun off from this effort.<br /><br />I'll have some final words for you after the final out has been recorded for the Sox. There will be some housecleaning to do and some perspective to consider. I will leave you with some thoughts on his first season, his future, and some personal feelings about what this experience has meant to me. I will also leave you some links as a reminder of where to find my writing if you are interested in reading more. I will always find my outlet for writing about the Japanese game, and the sport in all its forms. Until the last out, stay tuned for regular coverage and keep your fingers crossed for win #15, for Daisuke, for the Sox, and for my unnamed friend......Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-10604995942356591332007-09-23T00:42:00.000+09:002007-09-23T00:49:56.606+09:00D-DaysThe Yankees have miraculously made it interesting. The combination of wins and losses last night makes it 2.5 again, and Matsuzaka will look to essentially put a nail in the coffin of the Yankees AL East aspirations against the Rays. Hard to put a finger on which Matsuzaka we're going to see this week. He pitched back-to-back starts against the Rays in mid-August. Here are those lines:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:130%;" >8/15</span><br />6 IP<br />8 hits<br />3 walks<br />5 Ks<br />6 ER<br /><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">8/22</span></span><br />6 IP<br />2 hits<br />4 walks<br />8 Ks<br />2 ER<br /><br />I'll split the difference on today's prediction, since I'm out of ways to do this. My guess:<br /><br />6 IP<br />5 hits<br />3 walks<br />7 Ks<br />4 ER<br /><br />How's that? The question is, will that kind of start be enough to get the Sox an important win? I think, yes.Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-19865130403558964602007-09-14T18:52:00.000+09:002007-09-14T19:14:33.651+09:00Spankees"Ugh. The Yankees again."<br /><br />That's just what Matsuzaka must be thinking right now. Three straight starts have gone sour on Daisuke, and the rookie campaign is hurdling a bit out of control. Yankee fans have started their <a href="http://yankees.lohudblogs.com/2007/09/14/a-year-later-dice-k-rolling-snake-eyes/" target="_blank">ritualistic mockery of #18</a> at this point, revising history by saying how much they hoped he wouldn't be in pinstripes. It’s funny to me that all the “told you so” crowd is coming out now when he’s struggled for 3 starts and seen his numbers inflate. When he had a mid-3s ERA and a 125 ERA+ a few weeks ago, no one was saying boo.<br /><br />If you take the Yankees out of the equation, Matsuzaka's numbers are slightly better. To that point, let's look at his season with and without the Bombers.<br /><br />Against the Yankees<br />19.1 IP<br />19 hits<br />8 walks<br />16 Ks<br />3 HR<br />15 ER<br />6.98 ERA<br />1.40 WHIP<br /><br />Season minus Yankees<br />165 IP<br />156 hits<br />62 walks<br />76 ER<br />20 HR<br />163 Ks<br />4.15 ERA<br />1.32 WHIP<br /><br />Those numbers are only slightly better than his season totals, but when you consider that 6.98 ERA into the equation, he gets into trouble. Baltimore and Texas have also really cuffed Daisuke around, and hurt an otherwise outstanding stat line. With his recent struggles, Daisuke has posted a 103 ERA+ on the year, which will continue to delight Yankee fans and naysayers. $100 million for a league average pitcher. Nice work Theo.<br /><br />I'll never be in that camp. This is a world class pitcher, who needs to adjust. If Daisuke can do it in the postseason and learn enough to make adjustments in the offseason, you'll see the investment start to bubble over the next 2-3 seasons. If he fizzles against NY again, and then (God forbid) gets smacked around in the playoffs (God forbid against NY), Bostonians will turn on him faster than you can bat an eye. Keep the faith folks.<br /><br />6 IP<br />6 hits<br />3 walks<br />8 Ks<br />3 runs<br />118 pitches<br /><br />I'm betting that it won't be pretty against NY, but that our hero will escape a few jams. He's only got a .253 BAA with the Yankees, so it's not like he's getting smoked.Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-47954757909601715772007-09-09T01:53:00.001+09:002007-09-09T01:54:00.808+09:00Buried BirdsNo contest.<br /><br />8 IP<br />6 hits<br />2 walks<br />0 runs<br />11 Ks<br /><br />Great bounce back start and a run at 15 wins. The stretch belongs to Daisuke....Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-79870648428541841702007-09-06T08:44:00.000+09:002007-09-06T08:47:10.877+09:00Back in NYCHey MW fans.<br /><br />I'm fluctuating between access and no access to the internet these days as I get my life set up back home in NYC. I'll be in the US, in NYC, for at least a year. Japan is a part time thing in the short term, with several trips lined up this year.<br /><br />In the meantime, I'm trying to get myself back in full operational mode with respect to the net, e-mail, and blogging. I missed the last prediction, but I'll make sure to be there for the next. You'll also see a few more lengthy features in the near future as I reconnect with some of the folks in the blogosphere, on the beat, and at BP.<br /><br />Stay Tuned/Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-35145483307574605872007-08-28T23:01:00.000+09:002007-08-28T23:05:21.028+09:00Pinstriped GlassesOkay. The division is Boston's. I concede. The playoffs are within reach for the Yankees, if only because Seattle has stumbled at the same time the wheels have fallen off the Bombers' wagon. They also play a much tougher September. As a Yankee fan, I have to hope for a big series against the Sox to keep hope alive. I apologize for betting against our favorite Japanese import here, but it's killing time or its dying time and I gotta put my best judgment aside in favor of blind, stupid hope.<br /><br />Matsuzaka versus Pettitte<br /><br />5 IP<br />9 hits<br />4 walks<br />7 runs<br />5 strikeouts<br /><br />I'm sure he'll pitch a complete game shutout on 5 hits and a single walk with 11 Ks, but I'm a fan and I'm going to wear my underwear backwards and my rally cap tonight. Sigh.Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-77433570182747890202007-08-23T03:05:00.000+09:002007-08-23T03:10:37.388+09:00Ray-vengeSurprisingly, Daisuke was lit up by the young Devil Rays in his last outing. I say "surprisingly" because the Rays have taken a real nosedive this month, often struggling to score runs. The outburst against Matsuzaka in his last start was one of the few games in recent weeks when the Manta Rays were able to put any runs on the board. It won't happen again.<br /><br />I'm going to use my last Daisuke versus the Skates prediction again. I'm sure I'll get it right this time. I was just ahead of myself.<br /><br />7 IP<br />7 hits<br />2 walks<br />2 runs<br />8 Ks<br /><br />The Yankees will lose again in Anaheim and the division will be all but sewn up at the end of the night.Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-51749586437991080582007-08-15T23:40:00.000+09:002007-08-15T23:51:50.230+09:00Ray of HopeThanks to the Devil Rays, the Red Sox are putting a disappointing series against the O's to bed. The Rays look fair on paper and always give me hope that they will emerge from the cellar of the AL East one day, but in reality they are just awful. Matsuzaka is looking to get that elusive 14th win against the bumbling rays today and doesn't have to face the opposing team's ace on this occasion.<br /><br />This is a good opportunity to continue to lower his ERA and increase both his VORP and ERA+ to help his statistical case for those who follow such things. Right now, Daisuke's VORP stands at about 42 and his ERA+ is 126. Those numbers are excellent and are helping to make Theo's case for splashing on the posting fee. I was looking at Daisuke's stats, comparing them to the other pitchers in the Majors with at least 100 innings pitched. He is near the top of the league in several categories, but hasn't cracked the upper echelon of pitchers in baseball yet, mainly due to the walks he's allowed so far. His K-rate is over 9, but that is offset by a lot of free passes. It's the same story every time when discussing Daisuke's shortcomings, but the walks have prevented him from being truly elite. Carlos Zambrano is similar in the respect that both men throw upwards of 110 pitches per start. Those starts rarely go beyond 6+ innings because both men waste a ton of pitches to get their big strikeout totals. Both men are very young, as far as starting pitching goes, and need to learn to forgo the strikeout in favor of a few easier outs. As they get older their success will depend on it.<br /><br />For now, the Rays are looking to get to Daisuke quickly in this game. They are starting Andy Sonnanstine, who is 1-8 with a 6.35 ERA. The Sox offense could stake Matsuzaka to a big lead early and it will be smooth sailing from there. I imagine that will be the case and I also imagine that you'll see Gagne get back on the horse in this game and he'll pitch lights out.<br /><br />7 IP<br />7 hits<br />2 walks<br />2 runs<br />8 KsMike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-17319109124768741822007-08-11T06:13:00.000+09:002007-08-11T06:42:43.989+09:00Ornithologically CorrectLoyal readers know that I'm a Yankee fan. As a group, Red Sox fans and the many Yankee fans that drop by to read my work here are intimately familiar with the AL East. The fact is, with the exception of a few odd years, the Sox and the Yanks have been the class of the division and have seen little in the way of stiff competition from the other clubs since the early 90's. The Jays occasionally jump up to surprise, but the Orioles and the Rays have been laughing stocks for longer than I care to remember right now.<br /><br />As a Yankee fan, I see the Orioles as a sad case of poor investments coupled with mind-bogglingly unconscious management. The owner is in denial, the parade of decision-makers haven't made very good decisions, and the farm is dry. Whenever the Bombers head to Camden they are greeted by droves of Yankee fans in the stands. This happens in a lot of markets with respect to both the Yankees and the Sox, but nowhere does the phenomenon hold truer than Baltimore in recent years.<br /><br />This is a once proud franchise that can boast a number of history's greatest teams and many of its most celebrated players. These days that is easy to forget as good teams travel to the Inner Harbor to enjoy crab cakes, beer, and scoring obscene amounts of runs against the O's. The Red Sox are in town to do some damage and try to stretch the lead in the division a bit after seeing the Yankees gain ground while feasting on the runts of the litter in the AL. Matsuzaka gets Bedard in what promises to be the most compelling game of the series.<br /><br />Despite playing in one of the best hitters parks in the sport, the Orioles are an abysmal offensive club. The OBP is fair, but the Orioles don't hit for power and are generally only able to score runs by scrapping via the single or walk and the stolen base. Essentially, the Baltimore boys are a station to station ballclub. The only threat that these birds offer Daisuke is the potential for a big day on the basepaths. Steals are a problem for Matsuzaka and baserunners have seemed to bother him all year long. That said, I just don't see the Orioles having enough to beat our hero. Here's my prediction:<br /><br />7+ IP<br />7 hits<br />3 walks<br />3 runs<br />9 Ks<br /><br />There is the potential here for a stellar game, however. I think there is an 8 inning, double digit K, shutout performance lurking in this situation, but I'll stick with my prediction above. Go Matsuzaka, go!Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-4522052803811900842007-08-05T09:57:00.000+09:002007-08-05T10:07:56.392+09:00Seatown ReduxI'm in the US finally. I have little time to get my prediction in before gametime, but I'll post a quick one now. From here until the rest of the season, I hope to be more active at MW and write a bit more frequently. <br /><br />For today, let's base our prediction on the past performances Daisuke's had against the Pilots....er...Mariners.<br /><br />3 games<br />20 IP<br />16 hits<br />7 walks<br />11 ER<br />13 Ks<br />4.95 ERA<br />1.15 WHIP<br />.216 BAA<br /><br />The big ERA is mainly a product of a drubbing on May 3rd when he gave up 7 runs and 5 walks in 5 innings pitched. I think he'll be very good tonight and give the Sox 7 solid innings. Here goes:<br /><br />7 IP<br />5 hits<br />2 walks<br />2 runs<br />7 strikeouts<br /><br />Good luck....Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-91182731135760256102007-07-29T18:43:00.000+09:002007-07-29T18:47:44.859+09:00D-Rays Blitz PostI'm in rural Nagano Prefecture, hooked up with wireless. Here goes. Just guts. No real analysis.<br /><br />8 IP<br />7 hits<br />2 walks<br />1 run<br />11 Ks<br />125 pitches<br /><br />Kick ass Daisuke!Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-74271118733557312182007-07-24T14:03:00.000+09:002007-07-24T14:23:38.357+09:00(Bad) Luck of the DrawIt seems our boy keeps getting the bad draw when it comes to opposing team's aces. The Indians figure to be a tough team to beat on any given night, but especially when their hefty lefty is on the hill. C.C. Sabathia has always been a top quality pitcher, but has really come into his own the last two seasons. Fortunately for the Red Sox, Sabathia is coming off two horrible starts and hasn't looked at all effective in July. If that trend continues, the Sox will jump on him early and often and Matsuzaka can earn himself a little cushion. <br /><br />The Sox haven't seen C.C. this year, and only got him once in 2006. Sabathia went 8 strong, giving up a single run on a homer by Mark Loretta. Things could get ugly in this situation for the Tribe, as the Sox are among the best teams in the sport at mashing lefties. Boston hits home runs at slightly better than the league average rate against southpaws and hold an impressive .816 OPS against them.<br /><br />Matsuzaka hasn't pitched well in July after a great June. Things seem to spin out of control when he begins his nightly foray into wasted pitches. It's been common to see Daisuke get ahead 0-2 and 1-2 on batters and then throw pitches above eye level and outside. No one is going to swing at those pitches. The key, as is always the case, will be for Matsuzaka to remain efficient against a team that is 4th in the Major Leagues in on base percentage and scores at a clip only rivaled by the Phillies, Tigers, Red Sox, and Yankees. Can he put together enough control to overwhelm the powerful Indians lineup?<br /><br />I'm going to predict that Sabathia is lights out early but falters somewhere in the 6th or 7th inning. Matsuzaka will give up some early runs in this game and settle down late. The key will be Boston's ability to score given the chance against a tiring Sabathia and steal victory from the jaws of defeat.<br /><br />7 IP<br />9 hits<br />3 walks<br />4 runs<br />7 strikeouts<br />119 pitchesMike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-80898670526213723912007-07-23T10:06:00.000+09:002007-07-23T10:07:30.264+09:00Hectic DaysHello MW readers (that means you mom)....<br /><br />I'm in the midst of some big changes these days. I'm setting up life between the US and Japan right now and it's a major undertaking. Those who keep living space on both the East and West Coasts of the United States are generally referred to as "bi-coastal" although I'm not sure what nomenclature would be chosen for my situation.<br /><br />At any rate, I will be headed back to the friendly confines of New York City in early August, keeping a place in Akita City. During the next 2-3 weeks I'm afraid my blogging will be inconsistent, although I should be able to find enough access to both baseball and the internet to update here often. If I end up AWOL for several days without an update, rest assured that I will be back into the full swing of things by the 2nd week of August as a full time blogging maniac again.<br /><br />Thanks for your patience and for always supporting what I do here. Keep checking back!!<br /><br />Mike PlughMike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-91240589333099632562007-07-19T17:11:00.000+09:002007-07-19T22:47:45.264+09:00Moving DayI'm in the middle of moving right now, but Matsuzaka Watch is just that committed. Here's a quick prediction. The White Sox are garbage. Matsuzaka is coming off a couple of shaky performances. We get to see some vintage Daisuke to the tune of:<br /><br />9 IP<br />4 hits<br />1 walk<br />0 runs<br />12 Ks<br />125+ pitches<br /><br />Just a gut feeling. I will probably regret that prediction later.....Gotta move. See you on the flip side true believers....Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-49404259527845719202007-07-13T13:21:00.001+09:002007-07-14T14:56:42.419+09:00Fausto ImpressionsSo much for the big test against the Tigers. One has to allow for the type of outing that Daisuke had against the Tigers prior to the All Star Break, as there is no better offense in the sport than the Motown Cats. It's easy to set our expectations high for Matsuzaka based in part on reputation and in part on the type of results we've seen over the course of the last month or so. There are a few statement games that appear in a season that you hope your man will step up and prove himself to show the world what he's made of. It wasn't to be for Matsuzaka in this game, but there will be more to come.<br /><br />Meanwhile, the third go round against Toronto is on the horizon. The lineup looks different up North compared to the last time the Jays and Red Sox faced off with Daisuke on the hill. Vernon Wells is presently occupying the leadoff spot and the Blue Jays are getting a little more from Frank Thomas as well. Daisuke has had some success against the AL East's 2nd place club so far in his career with a 2.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and .170 BAA in 13 innings of work. He's struck out 18 in those two contests, but has also worked himself into trouble with 6 walks. The man to watch in this contest is All Star Alex Rios, who is having a second consecutive monster season. Against Daisuke so far, Rios is 3-6 with a walk and a double. His OPS against Matsuzaka is 1.238 in limited action.<br /><br />The Cleveland Indians Fausto Carmona just beat Toronto a few days ago. He has very similar numbers to Daisuke on the season with the exception of strikeouts. Matsuzaka is in another class altogether. Our man also has a much longer track record of success than Carmona, so we can project a slightly better result based on superior strikeout ability and a better feel for the game. Basing my prediction on the results that Fausto produced, tweaking for a superior Matsuzaka, I'm going with the following.....<br /><br />7 IP<br />6 hits<br />2 runs<br />3 walks<br />8 strikeouts<br />120 pitchesMike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-90036246024726042152007-07-08T22:55:00.000+09:002007-07-08T22:59:56.931+09:00Too busy to be creative tonight. I'm going lightning style with my prediction. Tigers are first in baseball with a team .290 average, 3rd with a .352 OBP, and first with a .471 slugging mark. They lead the 2nd place Indians by 35 runs scored on the season. There offense is goofy. Dangerous business. <br /><br />6 IP<br />8 hits<br />4 runs<br />2 walks<br />7 Ks<br />114 pitches<br /><br />Good luck Daisuke!!Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29050172.post-46028337244687240412007-07-03T20:15:00.000+09:002007-07-04T06:42:19.569+09:00Hot Stuff<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/Roo4VXOXc9I/AAAAAAAAAmc/UThuWfs5gWE/s1600-h/koda+kumi.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; float: left; cursor: pointer;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_I7ZR9V0Heag/Roo4VXOXc9I/AAAAAAAAAmc/UThuWfs5gWE/s200/koda+kumi.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5082937069103707090" border="0" /></a>So it would seem that Duke Saraie had the right recipe to help Daisuke get the walking right after all, huh? Nice work Duke. I thought I'd try to give another boost to our hero as he's about to take on another AL East club with a budding lineup of very nice players. To keep Matsuzaka hot, I nabbed hip hop/R&B singer <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kumi_Koda">Kumi Koda</a> to perform her smash hit "Hot Stuff" for the Matsuzaka Watch audience. Koda is famous for providing scores and images to several of the Final Fantasy chapters, as well as for pioneering the <a href="http://www.rhythmzone.net/koda/index.html">"Ero-kakkoii"</a> trend among her young fans. "Ero-kakkoii" is a combination of the words "erotic" and "cool" and anyone who has seen any of her work understands why it caught on.<br /><br />Anyway, she's here via the magic of YouTube to kick off our coverage of the next Matsuzaka start. Let's hope our hero stays hot and can deliver a big performance against the Rays. With no further ado, I give you "Hot Stuff" from Kumi Koda:<br /><br /><object height="350" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/3T6ZTu4-X7E"><param name="wmode" value="transparent"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/3T6ZTu4-X7E" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" height="350" width="425"></embed></object><br /><br />Uh. I forgot to ask her anything about Daisuke. Yeah. Hmmmmm.....Guess I have to field this one on my own. I'll go with:<br /><br />7 IP<br />5 hits<br />2 runs<br />2 walks<br />9 K<br /><br />You can close your mouth now.Mike Plughhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08180838171989998353noreply@blogger.com17